BBQ Meat Price Report – December 2025

The MSC Market Desk · reviewed by John Kirker · Published January 2, 2026 · Data: December 2025 USDA AMS reports

The Take

Opinion – the desk’s own read, not advice.

Our take: we’re not chasing chuck roast this month. At $9.97/lb and the highest print in our window, it’s stopped being the budget braise it used to be, and we’d rather lean on pork loin or pork tenderloin for slow-cooked comfort food even with their own upward creep – they’re still cheaper per pound and the trend isn’t nearly as violent. We’d also point our smoker-focused readers toward chicken wings, which at $2.91/lb are the cheapest they’ve been in our entire 14-month window – stock the freezer now if wing night matters to your household.

For anyone holding out for a steak splurge, we’d wait on ribeye rather than filet: ribeye just came off an October high and is drifting down, while filet is climbing back up off its own low. If the wholesale cutout’s dip holds through January, we think chuck has more room to soften before it has room to spike again – but we wouldn’t bet the roast on it happening fast.

December’s market sheet has one clear headline: chuck roast, long the budget cut of the beef case, hit $9.97 a pound – up 21.1% on the month and a stunning 74% above last December, the highest print anywhere in our 14-month window. It wasn’t alone; pork butt jumped 18.2% to $3.64/lb and pork loin climbed 13.5% to $3.36/lb, while poultry told the opposite story, with chicken wings sliding 26.3% to $2.91/lb – the cheapest wings we’ve tracked all year. Tri-tip and whole turkey both posted steep post-holiday pullbacks of over 28%. This is a month where the protein aisle split hard down the middle: beef expensive and climbing, poultry cheap and easing.

The scoreboard (December 2025 grocery features, national averages)

Full live table for every cut: Meat Prices This Week.

The movers

The number that jumps off our December sheet is chuck roast at $9.97 a pound – up 21.1% on the month and up a startling 74% from a year ago, which also makes it the highest reading in our 14-month window. This isn’t a blip. Beef and veal prices have been climbing broadly across cuts this fall, and chuck – the cut that used to be the budget move for a Sunday pot roast – is now priced like it knows something you don’t. Grocery shoppers who built their winter braise rotation around chuck are feeling this one directly.

Pork butt followed the same script, up 18.2% on the month to $3.64/lb and up 50.4% year-over-year – still nowhere near chuck’s spike, but a reminder that shoulder cuts aren’t the safety valve they once were either. Pork loin (+13.5% to $3.36) and baby back ribs (+16% to $4.43) also moved up meaningfully, which tells us this wasn’t purely a beef story in December; several proteins firmed at once.

On the other side of the ledger, tri-tip fell hard – down 34.8% on the month to $7.44/lb, a sharp comedown from the $15.07 high this series hit back in June. Whole turkey dropped 28.4% to $2.04/lb as the post-Thanksgiving glut works through the case, though that’s still well off the $1.30 window low from February and turkey remains a seasonal read, not a trend. Chicken wings also eased notably, down 26.3% to $2.91/lb – the cheapest wing price in our entire window – continuing a run of relief in poultry that stands in stark contrast to beef. Beef ribs (-18.2% to $5.99) and leg of lamb (-14.3% to $8.35) pulled back too, both coming off recent highs. For shoppers looking for where the market still offers a break, our chicken wings guide and tri-tip guide are worth a look this month.

Ribeye, meanwhile, is a study in mixed signals: down 3.2% on the month to $15.78/lb, but still up 29.7% year-over-year, and it hit $18.79 as recently as October. Filet mignon, by contrast, climbed 8% on the month to $17.62 yet sits 13.7% below last December – a reminder that the priciest steaks don’t all move together.

Where the deals are

Where you shop still matters as much as what you buy. Chuck roast ran cheapest in the South Central region at $6.62/lb against a Midwest high of $8.92 – a gap wide enough to justify a longer drive or a different store banner. NY strip showed a similar spread: $10.71 in the South Central region versus $14.84 in the Midwest. Ribeye’s regional swing was the widest we tracked this month, from $11.61 in Alaska up to $21.37 in the Southwest – nearly double. Pork butt buyers did best in the Midwest at $2.15/lb, while the Northwest paid $4.42.

Wholesale watch

The boxed beef cutout – our wholesale reference point – sat at $3.53/lb equivalent in December, down 3.3% on the month but still up 17.7% year-over-year. That’s a mixed signal for the retail case: a modest wholesale pullback usually takes a few weeks to show up at the counter, so chuck and other beef cuts may still have some downward room heading into January even as they remain historically expensive.

The forces under the market

Reporting points to a simple, structural cause behind December’s beef story: the U.S. cattle herd is the smallest it’s been since the early 1950s after years of drought, and ranchers have been sending animals to slaughter earlier in the cycle rather than rebuilding herds^†1†4. That squeeze was compounded by trade disruptions – a screwworm outbreak in Mexico curtailed cattle imports, and a tariff dispute briefly disrupted Brazilian beef trade before being resolved^†1†16. Wholesale market reports through mid-December showed the chuck primal staying firm even as other beef primals softened, which lines up with retailers paying more for chuck inputs and passing it through^†8†11. Some coverage also pointed to retailers leaning into chuck in holiday ad features while supply of lower grades stayed tight, adding further upward pressure^†10.

Pork’s story looked different: reporting described comparatively steady pricing tied more to strong export demand and holiday inventory building than to any supply shock, with one report noting export activity supporting boneless pork butts even as domestic demand stayed quiet^†1†4. Chicken told yet another story – reporting described ample production and good supply across the industry, consistent with wings and other cuts running well below year-ago levels^{†1†9†14}. Turkey, meanwhile, stayed under pressure from avian flu’s ongoing impact on flocks, which reporting linked to limited availability even as December’s retail price eased seasonally^†2†4.

Dispatches

Plants go dark as the herd shrinks

Reuters reported on December 12 that JBS will permanently close its Riverside, California beef facility on February 2, 2026, cutting 374 jobs, with the company citing tight cattle supplies and higher costs^†5. Tyson Foods made a similar move, announcing on November 21 that it would shut its Lexington, Nebraska beef plant by January 20, 2026, while other reporting said Tyson would also cut its Amarillo, Texas plant to a single shift^†1†12. Both closures were tied in reporting to the broader cattle shortage and a weaker supply of feeder cattle moving through the system^†1†12.

Shoppers and steakhouses both start trading down

The New York Times reported that some longtime steakhouse regulars are opting for chicken or pork chops and trimming their steak orders as beef prices climb, with restaurants described as operating in “code red” mode^†4. On the retail side, ChefZone’s December market update said grocers were promoting chuck items heavily in holiday ad features while shifting more meat-case space to chicken thighs in place of pricier beef cuts^†10.

USDA’s cattle count confirms the squeeze

USDA’s December 1 Cattle on Feed report showed 11.7 million head on feed for slaughter, down 2% from a year earlier, with one market report noting placements running 11% below year-ago levels^†2†13. That data point underpins the herd-size story driving chuck and other beef cuts higher this month.

The playbook

For the home cook: this is a month to shop poultry and pork over beef where the recipe allows it. Chicken wings at $2.91/lb and chicken thighs holding near $2.45/lb are the standout values on our sheet, and pork loin and tenderloin, while up on the month, are still priced well below where beef roasts and steaks sit. If chuck roast is non-negotiable for a holiday braise, buy it where it’s cheapest – South Central retailers were running $6.62/lb against a Midwest average north of $8.90, a gap worth cross-shopping for.

For the caterer or competition cook watching margins: brisket at $8.27/lb is up 5.6% on the month but still well off its September high of $9.85, so it’s not the worst window to lock in a supply if your bookings run into spring. Beef short ribs and beef ribs both pulled back double digits this month from recent highs, which makes them a relatively better bet than chuck roast for a lower-cost beef centerpiece right now – worth checking your regional distributor pricing against our numbers before you commit to a menu built on chuck.

Watching next month

Turkey and tri-tip both just posted steep month-over-month drops as post-holiday demand fades – normal seasonal unwind, not a new trend, and turkey in particular tends to bottom out in late winter based on this window’s $1.30 February low. Chuck roast, on the other hand, is sitting at the top of its 14-month range with no seasonal excuse to fall back on, so we’ll be watching whether the wholesale cutout’s modest December pullback turns into a real retail correction in January, or whether chuck holds near $10 into the new year.

Sources

1. www.bostonglobe.com/2025/12/22/newsletters/beef-prices-rise-cattle-shortage/
2. alfred.stlouisfed.org/release
3. thehill.com/homenews/nexstar_media_wire/5661369-these-groceries-had-the-biggest-price-spikes-in-2025/
4. www.nytimes.com/2025/12/10/business/beef-prices-steakhouses.html
5. www.selinawamucii.com/news/2025/12/18/beef-cuts-prices-in-the-united-states-ease-short-term/
6. www.walmart.com/ip/Chuck-Roast-Choice-Angus-Beef-Tray-Fresh-2-00-2-65-lb/39944474
7. mertsspecialtymeats.com/specials/12-12-2025-specials/
8. www.oklahomafarmreport.com/okfr/2025/12/19/choice-boxed-beef-1-15-higher-at-357-28-on-thursday/
9. burntmyfingers.com/2025/12/22/prime-rib-prices-2025/
10. chefzone.com/market-update/december-2025-market-update/
11. www.oklahomafarmreport.com/okfr/2025/12/26/boxed-beef-tumbles-3-41-to-351-21-on-friday-december-26th/
12. diningalliance.com/blog/the-dish-market-report-december-16-2025/
13. www.uaex.uada.edu/media-resources/news/2025/december2025/12-12-2025-Ark-beef-slaughter-down.aspx
14. fortune.com/2025/12/27/americans-forced-to-cut-down-on-spending-because-groceries-are-so-expensive/