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State of the Smoke: Summer 2026
The Take
Opinion – the desk’s own read, not advice.
“
Let’s not bury the lede: this was the summer beef ate everyone’s cookout budget. Ribeye and NY Strip both logged quarter-over-quarter gains north of 28% – the kind of move we usually see spread across a year, compressed into three months – while brisket ran up 45.1% to a fresh window-high of $11.39/lb. If you smoked a full packer this August, you paid a real premium for the privilege, and our data says that premium is not a blip; it’s sitting on top of the same 75-year cattle-herd low everyone’s been talking about since spring.
Our read: this is the quarter to lean hard into the cuts the herd shortage hasn’t touched. Pork butt at $2.80/lb – down nearly 30% on the quarter – is arguably the best long-cook value we’ve seen all year, and chicken thighs at $2.04/lb are basically giving low-and-slow away for free. If we were building a fall competition circuit budget right now, we’d bank the pork and poultry savings and treat brisket and steak as the occasional splurge, not the default. The herd isn’t rebuilding overnight, and neither is your grocery bill if you keep buying like it’s 2024.
”
Summer 2026 at a glance
- Ribeye jumped 28.4% on the quarter to $18.80/lb – and yoy is the same 28.4%, all summer heat
- NY Strip up 34.8% quarter-over-quarter to $17.97/lb, now the priciest we’ve tracked in our window
- Brisket surged 45.1% this quarter to $11.39/lb, a fresh window-high and up 15.6% yoy
- Leg of Lamb climbed 6.6% to $13.49/lb, a stunning 48.2% above last summer
- Pork Butt fell 29.6% quarter-over-quarter to $2.80/lb, now 12.8% cheaper than a year ago
- Whole Turkey spiked 77.2% to $3.49/lb on seasonal restocking, still 26.9% above last year
The scoreboard (August 2026 grocery features, national averages)
| Cut | Avg | vs prior month | vs last year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Whole Turkey | $3.49/lb | +77.2% | +26.9% |
| Leg of Lamb | $13.49/lb | +6.6% | +48.2% |
| Brisket | $11.39/lb | +45.1% | +15.6% |
| NY Strip Steak | $17.97/lb | +34.8% | +15.9% |
| Pork Butt / Shoulder | $2.80/lb | -29.6% | -12.8% |
| Tri-Tip | $11.02/lb | +2.4% | +29.3% |
| Ribeye Steak | $18.80/lb | +28.4% | +28.4% |
| Pork Belly | $4.47/lb | -14.7% | -16.8% |
| Baby Back Ribs | $3.42/lb | -10.7% | +16.3% |
| Chicken Thighs | $2.04/lb | -15% | -9.7% |
Full live table for every cut: Meat Prices This Week.
The movers
“
Beef was the whole story this quarter, and the scoreboard doesn’t leave much room for argument. Ribeye rose 28.4% quarter-over-quarter to $18.80/lb in August – its window-high for the year – and, notably, its year-over-year figure landed at the exact same 28.4%, meaning essentially all of the annual gain happened in this one quarter. NY Strip wasn’t far behind, up 34.8% on the quarter to $17.97/lb, also a window-high, though its yoy comparison is a milder 15.9%, suggesting last summer’s strip prices were already running hot. Brisket capped the trio with a 45.1% quarter-over-quarter jump to $11.39/lb, up 15.6% yoy and, again, a fresh window-high – three marquee cuts, three records, one quarter.
Lamb told a related but distinct story. Leg of lamb climbed 6.6% on the quarter to $13.49/lb, but the year-over-year number is the real headline: 48.2% higher than summer 2025, and a new high for our tracking window after sitting at just $8.35/lb back in December. Tri-tip moved similarly, up 2.4% quarter-over-quarter to $11.02/lb but 29.3% higher than a year ago, with the priciest region (southeast, $12.16) running more than double the cheapest (northeast, $5.99) – a regional spread worth checking before you buy.
Not everything went up. Pork butt fell 29.6% quarter-over-quarter to $2.80/lb, now 12.8% cheaper than last summer and closing in on its window-low of $2.69/lb from October 2025. Baby back ribs dropped 10.7% on the quarter to $3.42/lb even though they’re still up 16.3% yoy. Chicken wings (-14.2% on the quarter, -10.9% yoy) and chicken thighs (-15% on the quarter, now at a window-low $2.04/lb) rounded out a genuinely good summer for anyone willing to skip the steak counter.
Whole turkey’s 77.2% quarter-over-quarter spike to $3.49/lb looks alarming out of context, but it’s the seasonal restocking climb off a $1.38 January floor, not a new crisis – worth watching, not panicking over.
”
The forces under the market
“
The beef story starts with the herd, not the grill. U.S. cattle inventories sat at their lowest level in 75 years this summer, and persistent drought and wildfire pressure across ranching country discouraged the herd expansion that would normally ease prices.†4 That scarcity is the backbone of the ribeye, strip, and brisket moves in our own numbers above. Layered on top of the drought was a genuine disease scare: the detection of New World screwworm in a Texas calf – the first U.S. case since 1966 – which Texas A&M economists called the market’s biggest wild card for herd rebuilding.†5†2
Lamb’s surge has its own supply story: lower slaughter and lighter dressed weights constrained output even as demand stayed steady, with industry reporting pointing to drought and higher feed costs on the production side.†11 Demand also had a substitution component – as beef got more expensive, some shoppers traded toward lamb, a dynamic Ohio State’s small-ruminant analysis flagged explicitly when discussing stronger negotiated slaughter-lamb prices this spring.†9
Pork moved the other direction on tighter supply logic that, unusually, pushed the opposite way for butt and belly by the time our August numbers were pulled – but the underlying summer driver reported elsewhere was reduced sow numbers and slaughter running behind year-ago levels, which had been pushing pork costs up earlier in the season before easing.†3 Poultry, by contrast, stayed calm all summer: forecasters expected chicken breast prices to hold nearly flat into fall, and week-to-week roaster chicken pricing was reported unchanged in August – no supply shock comparable to beef or lamb.†2†8
We don’t see a major summer trade-policy shock in the reporting behind this quarter’s prices – the clearest forces were weather, herd size, and disease risk, not tariffs or export policy.†2†4
”
Voices from the pit
“
The beef run-up landed hardest on the smaller barbecue joints actually buying brisket by the case. Dan Hines, owner of Yazoo Barbeque, told a business outlet that suppliers were charging him 28% more for brisket this summer – a squeeze that reporting framed as part of a broader pattern of Texas barbecue joints raising menu prices or rethinking offerings rather than absorbing the cost.†3 WBUR’s coverage the same season described rising beef prices as ‘smoking’ Texas BBQ joints, with operators under pressure to adjust rather than eat the increase themselves.†8
Beyond that one named example, the published reporting we have doesn’t identify additional pitmasters or caterers by name this quarter – so we’re not going to manufacture color that isn’t there. What is clear from the broader coverage is the mixed incentive restaurants faced: some beef cuts got dramatically more expensive while others eased, pushing menu decisions in different directions depending on which cut a kitchen relied on.†1
”
The playbook
“
For families: This is a pork-and-poultry summer, not a steak summer. Pork butt at $2.80/lb (down 29.6% on the quarter) is the standout long-cook buy – stock the freezer for pulled pork before the next up-cycle. Chicken thighs at a window-low $2.04/lb and wings down 14.2% on the quarter make for cheap wing night without the guilt. If you’re craving beef, chuck roast (-1% on the quarter, still a moderate $7.04/lb) is a far gentler entry point than ribeye or strip right now.
For caterers and competition cooks: Brisket at $11.39/lb is a genuine window-high, so if a contract lets you substitute or adjust portions, this is the quarter to do it – or to shop the regional spread, since southeast brisket ($4.87) runs dramatically below northeast ($14.99) in our data. Tri-tip shows a similar regional gap (northeast $5.99 vs. southeast $12.16), so a menu built around regional sourcing flexibility protects margin better than a fixed-cut menu this season. Lock in lamb menu pricing now if you’re planning fall events – leg of lamb’s 48.2% yoy climb isn’t showing signs of reversing based on the supply picture in the reporting.
”
Watching next quarter
“
Watch the cattle herd numbers into Q4: with inventories at a 75-year low and the New World screwworm detection adding disease risk to the rebuilding calculus, we don’t expect ribeye, strip, or brisket to give back this quarter’s gains quickly. Lamb is the wildcard to track for holiday planning – if the substitution effect from expensive beef continues, leg of lamb could push past its current $13.49/lb window-high heading into winter roasts. On the value side, keep an eye on whether pork butt’s slide below $2.80/lb holds, or whether it’s a temporary dip before sow numbers tighten again. Whole turkey’s seasonal climb toward Thanksgiving is normal and worth watching for restocking deals rather than sticker shock.
”
Sources
- www.northernag.net/quarterly-circana-lamb-report/
- www.indexbox.io/blog/usda-ams-weekly-market-data-lamb-goat-veal-and-wool-prices-late-mayearly-june-2026/
- meatsmokingcalculator.com/state-of-the-smoke-summer-2026/
- www.indexbox.io/blog/usda-ams-market-data-lamb-goat-veal-and-wool-report-june-25-2026/
- meatsmokingcalculator.com/meat-price-report-2026-07/
- www.indexbox.io/blog/usda-ams-market-report-lamb-goat-veal-and-wool-data-for-june-5-2026/
- www.indexbox.io/blog/usda-market-report-lamb-goat-veal-and-wool-september-3-2026/
- www.indexbox.io/blog/usda-livestock-market-report-lamb-goat-veal-and-wool-data-for-september-4-2026/
- u.osu.edu/sheep/2026/06/09/lamb-prices-start-off-strong-in-2026/
- www.indexbox.io/blog/usda-ams-weekly-market-data-lamb-goat-veal-and-wool-report-july-17-2026/
- lambboard.com/weekly-news/strong-lamb-prices-continue-despite-drought-and-economic-pressures
- www.hoosieragtoday.com/2026/07/28/usda-july-2026-food-price-outlook/
- www.indexbox.io/blog/usda-weekly-lamb-goat-veal-and-wool-market-report-august-27-2026/
- uk.marketscreener.com/news/elders-australian-lamb-has-become-the-new-wagyu-ce7f5ddcdd88f025
Written by John Kirker, who built the first meat smoking calculator in 2011. Times come from cooks we have actually run and logged; temperature and feel decide the finish, never the clock alone.
Reviewed by John Kirker, Founder, John Kirker Inc. - last updated September 11, 2026.
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