BBQ Meat Price Report – September 2026

The MSC Market Desk · reviewed by John Kirker · Published October 3, 2026 · Data: September 2026 USDA AMS reports

The Take

Opinion – the desk’s own read, not advice.

Our read: September was the month beef politely reminded everyone who’s boss, and smart shoppers are already voting with their carts toward chicken thighs and whole chicken instead. We’d skip filet mignon entirely this month – a 32.8% jump to a fresh window high is the market telling you to wait – and lean into the ribeye and strip pullback instead, since both cuts just gave back a meaningful chunk of August’s spike and may keep sliding.

If we’re planning a cookout this month, it’s pork butt and chuck roast on the smoker, not a steakhouse cut on the grill. Pork butt’s bounce back toward $3.61/lb stings after its summer dip, but it’s still cheaper than most beef in the case, and chuck roast at $7.94/lb turns into a week of meals for the price of one filet.

The scoreboard (September 2026 grocery features, national averages)

Full live table for every cut: Meat Prices This Week.

The movers

Filet mignon is the number that jumps off the page this month: $25.27/lb, up 32.8% from August and a fresh high for our 14-month window – easily clearing the prior high set just last month. That’s steakhouse-cut pricing showing up at the retail case, and it’s part of a broader story of tight cattle supply keeping premium beef expensive even as some other cuts cooled off. If filet is your centerpiece, this isn’t the month to buy it on a whim; check our filet mignon guide for ways to stretch it.

Ribeye told the opposite story, dropping 23.2% to $14.43/lb after peaking at $18.80/lb in August – the steepest pullback of any cut we track this month. NY strip followed the same arc, down 10.7% to $16.04/lb off last month’s $17.97/lb high. Both reversals look like August’s premium-steak run-up giving back some ground, exactly the pattern we flagged watching last issue. Tri-tip and leg of lamb joined the retreat too, tri-tip down 19.8% to $8.84/lb and leg of lamb down 25.9% to $9.99/lb after its own August peak of $13.49/lb.

On the poultry side, chicken thighs spiked 43.1% to $2.92/lb – a new window high – while whole chicken climbed 19.6% to $2.99/lb, also a fresh high, and whole turkey jumped 10.6% to $3.86/lb, the top of our entire 14-month window. That’s a striking move given chicken wings fell 12.6% to $2.64/lb over the same stretch, suggesting this is more a story of which poultry cuts retailers chose to feature than a broad poultry cost increase – consistent with the wholesale-steady, promotion-driven read on turkey from published reporting.

Pork butt kept climbing too, up 28.9% to $3.61/lb, reversing the slide we were watching toward last October’s $2.69/lb low. It’s now closer to July’s $3.98/lb peak than to that low – a bounce-back, not a continued slide. Chuck roast climbed 12.8% to $7.94/lb, while brisket eased a modest 3.8% to $10.96/lb, still near August’s $11.39/lb window high and up 31.7% year-over-year.

Where the deals are

Regional spreads stayed wide this month. The Southeast had the cheapest filet mignon at $10.99/lb against a Northwest high of $21.89/lb – more than double. For everyday grilling, the Northwest also had the cheapest ribeye at $11.99/lb while the Southcentral region ran $28.32/lb for the same cut. Chicken shoppers did best in the Southeast at $0.67/lb for quarters, and turkey hunters found the Southcentral region cheapest at $1.99/lb versus $5.29/lb in the Northeast – proof that “fresh window high” nationally doesn’t mean expensive everywhere.

Wholesale watch

The boxed beef cutout (wholesale, per-lb equivalent) sat essentially flat this month at $3.66, down just 0.3% from August and down 4.2% year-over-year. That’s a quiet wholesale signal sitting underneath some loud retail moves – it suggests the filet mignon and chuck roast gains we saw at the counter are running more on cattle-supply tightness and retailer merchandising decisions than on a fresh wholesale cost spike, echoing the research on turkey’s promotional-driven jump.

The forces under the market

The beef story this month is tight cattle supply, full stop. Published reporting ties persistently elevated beef prices to cattle numbers that simply haven’t recovered, a condition that predates September and was reinforced by the Kansas processing disruption described above.^†4 Reporting also noted an administration move to temporarily expand the tariff-rate quota for lean beef trimmings, with lower-tariff beef beginning to enter the country September 1 – but even with that relief valve opening, market coverage says imported beef hadn’t meaningfully lowered what shoppers pay.^†2

Poultry read very differently. USDA reporting described ample supply and weak wholesale chicken pricing through late September, consistent with chicken staying a cheaper fallback as consumers shifted away from beef.^†2 Turkey’s retail jump, meanwhile, looks like a merchandising story more than a cost one: wholesale whole-bird quotes were steady to flat all month, while retailers eased off promotional turkey features heading into the holiday run-up.^†1 On the shopper side, a Kansas State University demand survey found consumers more willing to pay for meat at the grocery store in August but notably more cautious about restaurant meals – a split between at-home and food-service appetite that tracks with the trade-down behavior reporters observed.^†3

Dispatches

Kansas cattle slowdown hits the chain

Immigration enforcement activity in southwest Kansas disrupted beef processors, feedlots and grain handlers late in the month, with USDA data showing estimated cattle slaughter falling to about 90,000 head on September 24 and 87,000 head on September 25 – down 16% and 14% from the week before.^†4 Industry groups said the disruption delayed shipments of thousands of cattle, one more squeeze on an already-tight cattle supply that’s been propping up beef prices all year.^†4

Shoppers trade down, retailers respond

With beef prices elevated, shoppers described buying chicken instead of beef or simply walking away from the meat case, including one New York shopper who told a reporter that $8-a-pound ground beef pushed her toward chicken.^†3 Aldi said it would cut prices on a range of U.S. grocery items this fall, estimating about $86 million in shopper savings, while Kroger drew attention for pulling some supplier items amid pricing disputes.^†3

Turkey’s price jump isn’t a cost story

Even as whole turkey hit a fresh window high at retail this month, USDA wholesale quotes stayed mostly steady through September, with fresh whole young toms around 187.00 cents/lb in mid-month.^†1 Reporting pointed instead to retailers pulling back on promotional turkey features ahead of the holiday season, not a wholesale cost spike.^†1

Last month’s call

Grading our last issue’s outlook: we said watch whether ribeye and strip hold their window highs into September – they didn’t, both pulled back hard (ribeye -23.2%, strip -10.7%), exactly the “give some back” scenario we flagged as possible. We called whole turkey’s rise a base-effect story and wondered if it would drift toward last August’s $3.99/lb high; instead it blew right past that path to $3.86/lb and a fresh window high, faster than we expected. And pork butt didn’t keep sliding toward October’s $2.69/lb low as we were tracking – it reversed hard, up 28.9% to $3.61/lb, bouncing back toward July’s peak instead. Two out of three went the way we described as possible, but turkey’s speed and pork butt’s reversal both surprised us.

The playbook

For the family cook: buy chicken thighs and whole chicken for the weekly rotation even at their fresh highs, because they’re still a fraction of what beef costs right now, and hold off on filet mignon and ribeye until the current beef-supply squeeze eases. If brisket is on your list, $10.96/lb is off August’s $11.39/lb peak but still up sharply year-over-year, so buy what you need rather than stocking the freezer.

For the caterer or high-volume cook: pork butt at $3.61/lb and chuck roast at $7.94/lb are your margin-savers this month, both well below beef’s premium cuts and forgiving on the smoker. Shop regional spreads where you can – a Southeast filet order at $10.99/lb versus a Northwest order at $21.89/lb is the kind of gap worth a phone call to a different supplier before you commit to a menu price.

Watching next month

Watch whether ribeye and NY strip keep giving back August’s run-up or find a floor – ribeye’s $13.51/lb May low is the level to watch if the slide continues. Whole turkey just set a fresh window high at $3.86/lb heading into the holiday roasting season, so the real test is whether that keeps climbing as retailers ramp up Thanksgiving merchandising, or eases back the way turkey promotions did late in September. And pork butt’s bounce to $3.61/lb puts it back within reach of July’s $3.98/lb peak – worth tracking whether it keeps climbing or rolls back over toward last October’s $2.69/lb low.

Sources

1. www.indexbox.io/blog/usda-turkey-market-report-mixed-wholesale-prices-softer-retail-features/
2. www.indexbox.io/blog/usda-turkey-market-report-mixed-wholesale-prices-weaker-retail-feature-activity/
3. www.indexbox.io/blog/usda-weekly-national-turkey-report-september-14-18-2026/
4. www.indexbox.io/blog/usda-turkey-market-report-september-4-2026/
5. www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_SN20260923009019:0/
6. www.indexbox.io/blog/usda-turkey-market-snapshot-frozen-turkey-prices-steady-on-light-demand/
7. www.foodotrends.com/us/price-history/frozen-ground-turkey
8. wreg.com/wreg-price-tracker/price-tracker-september-2026-grocery-basket-totals-drop-by-slightly-from-last-month/
9. www.foodotrends.com/us/price-history/frozen-whole-turkey
10. www.steadfastfarmsusa.com/blog/pastured-poultry-monthly-3/the-sausage-only-you-can-sell-17
11. passionatepennypincher.com/best-turkey-prices/
12. www.foodotrends.com/us/category/frozen-turkey
13. esmis.nal.usda.gov/
14. foodtradenews.com/2026/09/26/food-trade-roundup-for-september-26-2026/