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BBQ Meat Price Report – July 2026
The Take
Opinion – the desk’s own read, not advice.
Our read: this is the month to buy pork butt somewhere else and steak right here. At $3.98/lb, butt just posted its highest reading of our 14-month window and a 25.9% monthly jump – that’s not a price we’d chase for a summer cook when the same cut was $2.69/lb as recently as last October. Steak, on the other hand, just handed shoppers a real gift: ribeye and strip both fell double digits this month, and prime rib is now cheaper than it’s been since January. If our smoker budget had one job this month, it would be locking in a ribeye or a standing rib roast while the pullback lasts, not restocking the pulled-pork freezer.
We’d also keep an eye on region. If you’re anywhere near the Southwest, tri-tip at $6.56/lb looks like a real bargain relative to what Southeast shoppers are paying – worth a special trip or an online order if your usual butcher is priced like Hawaii or Alaska this month.
At a glance
- Pork butt: $3.98/lb, +25.9% on the month – a fresh window high
- NY strip: $13.33/lb, -24.2% on the month as steak prices give back June’s surge
- Chicken wings: $3.52/lb, +34.9% on the month
- Prime rib: $12.77/lb, -19.1% on the month and -17.6% year-over-year
- Beef short ribs: $9.95/lb, +11.4% on the month
The scoreboard (July 2026 grocery features, national averages)
| Cut | Avg | vs prior month | vs last year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pork Butt / Shoulder | $3.98/lb | +25.9% | +44.7% |
| Chicken Wings | $3.52/lb | +34.9% | +2.6% |
| Tri-Tip | $10.76/lb | -12.4% | +28.4% |
| Leg of Lamb | $12.66/lb | -2.5% | +26.7% |
| NY Strip Steak | $13.33/lb | -24.2% | +5% |
| Chicken Quarters | $1.18/lb | +2.6% | +21.6% |
| Spare Ribs | $3.19/lb | -19.6% | +19% |
| Prime Rib / Standing Rib Roast | $12.77/lb | -19.1% | -17.6% |
| Chicken Breast | $5.07/lb | +19% | +7.4% |
| Ribeye Steak | $14.64/lb | -16.1% | -0.4% |
Full live table for every cut: Meat Prices This Week.
The movers
Pork butt is the number that jumps off the page this month: $3.98/lb, up 25.9% from June and a full 44.7% above where it sat a year ago. That’s also a fresh high for our 14-month window, topping the previous ceiling and putting real distance between today’s price and last October’s low of $2.69/lb. Regionally the spread is wide too – the Southwest is still finding butt at $2.60/lb while the Southeast is paying $3.67/lb, so where you shop matters more than usual this month.
Steaks told the opposite story. NY strip fell 24.2% on the month to $13.33/lb, and ribeye dropped 16.1% to $14.64/lb – both giving back a chunk of the run-up that took ribeye to its window high of $18.79/lb back in October and strip to $17.58/lb just last month. Prime rib fell even harder, down 19.1% to $12.77/lb, now sitting 17.6% below where it was a year ago. If you were priced out of the steak case in June, July was your month to come back – see our ribeye guide for how to make the most of a pullback like this.
Chicken wings, on the other hand, spiked 34.9% to $3.52/lb – the sharpest single-month move on the board – though that’s still within this window’s range, below January’s $3.98/lb high. Beef short ribs also climbed, up 11.4% to $9.95/lb, while double-smoked ham rose 9.5% to a fresh window high of $5.90/lb. Chicken breast joined the risers too, up 19% to $5.07/lb, also a window high.
Spare ribs gave back the most ground among pork cuts, down 19.6% to $3.19/lb, a sharp cool-down from February’s $4.08/lb peak. Whole chicken also eased, down 12.8% to $2.59/lb, well off June’s $2.97/lb high.
Where the deals are
The Southwest and Southeast are pulling in opposite directions again this month. Pork butt is cheapest in the Southwest at $2.60/lb against $3.67/lb in the Southeast, and tri-tip shows the same pattern even more sharply – $6.56/lb in the Southwest versus $13.99/lb in the Southeast. Beef ribs are cheapest in the Northwest at $3.99/lb, and prime rib’s best price sits in the Southeast at $10.06/lb even as that region pays the most for tri-tip – a reminder that “cheap region” is cut-specific, not a blanket rule. Hawaii and Alaska continue to run priciest across the board, from $17.98/lb prime rib in Alaska to $18.99/lb filet mignon in Hawaii.
Wholesale watch
The wholesale boxed beef cutout eased 5.7% this month to $3.64/lb on a per-pound equivalent basis, though it’s still up 3.7% from a year ago. That softening wholesale number lines up with what we saw at retail – ribeye, strip and prime rib all pulled back from their earlier-summer highs, suggesting the cutout’s dip is starting to show up in the meat case rather than being absorbed by margin alone.
The forces under the market
Beef stayed the market’s tightest story this month. Cattle supply pressure – tied to drought and wildfire conditions that have discouraged herd expansion – kept a floor under beef even as some retail steak prices eased back from their earlier-summer highs.†17 USDA’s outlook continued to point toward firmer beef and veal prices generally, with the underlying cattle tightness still working its way through the supply chain.†4
Pork told a looser story. Market reporting described pork butt easing after peak grilling demand faded through July, with improving availability expected to keep the buying environment friendly into late summer, even though the wholesale butt primal itself had traded firm for stretches of the month before sliding as July wore on.†9†7 One market note attributed the pork cutout’s strength more to bellies and hams than to butts specifically, with pork production still running above year-ago levels.†11 Chicken, meanwhile, looked calm by comparison – reporting described poultry prices as flat with no supply or weather shock evident in the data.†15
Dispatches
The herd that won’t grow
Reuters reported the U.S. cattle herd sat at its lowest level in 75 years in July 2026, with drought and wildfires discouraging ranchers from rebuilding supply – the same squeeze that’s kept beef the tightest protein on our board even as steak prices cooled off their June peak.†17 The Farm Bureau’s July 4 survey found two pounds of ground beef running $14.06, up 5.5% year over year, a reminder that grilling season doesn’t wait for herds to rebuild.†17
Mexico’s cattle gate cracks open
USDA said it would resume cattle shipments from Mexico in phases starting with an Arizona port of entry on August 24, a move Bloomberg reported lifted Tyson and JBS shares on hope it could ease the domestic cattle shortage feeding into everything from ground beef to prime rib.†3 Meanwhile JBS USA’s beef operations stayed under pressure, with reporting describing plant closures and job cuts tied to losses in North American beef even as cattle stayed scarce.†5
Shoppers quietly trade down
A July survey cited by USA Today found 55% of consumers were buying less beef or had stopped buying it entirely, and among those cutting back, 44% said they were buying more chicken, pork or seafood.†5 Retailers noticed: USA Today reported Walmart and Sam’s Club rolled out summer discounts on ground beef, ribs and wings, while a Kroger spokesperson told CNBC that steak demand was holding up better than expected, with some shoppers trading up to premium and organic cuts even at high prices.†5†2
Last month’s call
Last month we flagged ribeye and strip sitting well above their window lows and asked whether they’d hold their highs past July Fourth – they didn’t. Ribeye fell 16.1% to $14.64/lb and strip fell 24.2% to $13.33/lb, both meaningful retreats from the June peaks we flagged last issue. We also said pork butt’s softness (down 10.2% in June) was worth watching for whether it reversed – it did, and then some, jumping 25.9% to a fresh window high of $3.98/lb, the opposite of what that trend suggested. Leg of lamb, as called, eased modestly (-2.5%) off its window high rather than breaking out further.
The playbook
For the family cook: this month rewards patience on pork and speed on beef. Pork butt’s 25.9% jump to $3.98/lb makes it a poor value right now next to its own recent history – hold off on the pulled pork and lean on chicken thighs ($2.40/lb, essentially flat on the month) or chicken breast if you can catch a sale, since the window-high $5.07/lb national reading still masks better regional prices in places like the Southcentral at $4.58/lb. On the beef side, ribeye and NY strip both fell hard this month, so if a steak dinner is on your list, July is a better month to buy than June was.
For the caterer or high-volume cook: brisket at $7.85/lb is down 6% on the month and sitting comfortably below its September 2025 window high of $9.85/lb, making it a steadier bet than the more volatile short rib line, which just jumped 11.4% to $9.95/lb. Watch regional sourcing closely – Southcentral brisket at $5.99/lb versus Northwest’s $8.99/lb is a meaningful gap on the same cut, more than enough to matter on a catering order.
Watching next month
Leg of lamb is still hovering just off its fresh window high of $12.99/lb set in June, down only 2.5% to $12.66/lb this month – worth watching to see if it keeps sliding into late summer or holds near the top of its range. Pork belly, up 7.6% to $5.24/lb, is also worth tracking since it’s climbing back toward last September’s window high of $5.37/lb after bottoming out in February. And with steak prices now well off their highs, the question for next month is whether ribeye and strip keep falling toward their spring lows or steady out here.
Sources
- www.indexbox.io/blog/usda-national-daily-pork-report-july-23-2026-prices-and-volumes/
- www.proteinreport.org/data/series/us-pork-retail-value
- meatingplace.com/daily-livestock-report-for-july-16-2026/
- www.indexbox.io/blog/usda-national-daily-pork-report-fob-omaha-july-29-2026/
- www.indexbox.io/blog/usda-national-weekly-pork-report-fob-plant-forward-sales-july-20-2026/
- www.proteinreport.org/data/sources/usda-ers-meat-price-spreads
- www.indexbox.io/blog/usda-pork-market-data-weekly-report-july-6-2026/
- www.indexbox.io/blog/usda-pork-cutout-values-decline-on-july-29-2026-with-belly-prices-dropping-sharply/
- yhata.com/articles/july-2026-market-update/
- insidetrackdata.com/insidetrack-market-report/july-29-2026-market-report/
- insidetrackdata.com/insidetrack-market-report/july-14-2026-market-report/
- www.linkedin.com/posts/steve-iannuccilli-3369a32_beefmarket-porkmarket-proteinspecialists-activity-7482748374350209024-LcB4
- lowtein.com/reports/grocery-price-index-july-2026
- beefpriceindex.com/
Written by John Kirker, who built the first meat smoking calculator in 2011. Times come from cooks we have actually run and logged; temperature and feel decide the finish, never the clock alone.
Reviewed by John Kirker, Founder, John Kirker Inc. - last updated September 11, 2026.
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