BBQ Meat Price Report – May 2026

The MSC Market Desk · reviewed by John Kirker · Published June 2, 2026 · Data: May 2026 USDA AMS reports

The Take

Opinion – the desk’s own read, not advice.

Our read this month: let beef be the wild card it’s acting like, and don’t chase it. Ribeye and tri-tip just gave back real ground, which is a gift if you were holding off – but NY strip ripped the other way, up nearly 16% in the same thirty days for the same broad “beef is tight” reason. We’d buy the dip on ribeye and tri-tip this month and leave strip alone until it cools.

We’d also steer hard away from lamb right now. A new window-high at $10.99/lb, up nearly 43% year over year, isn’t a “wait it out” price – it’s a “cook something else for the holiday” price. Put that budget toward pork butt instead, even with its own 28.5% jump this month; at $3.52/lb it’s still the cheapest protein-per-dollar smoke on this whole sheet, and chicken wings at $2.98/lb (down over 15%) make for an easy, crowd-pleasing backup plan.

The scoreboard (May 2026 grocery features, national averages)

Full live table for every cut: Meat Prices This Week.

The movers

Beef is a story of two directions this month, and that split is the headline. Ribeye steak dropped 20.9% to $13.51/lb, and tri-tip fell 17.2% to $8.84/lb – both pulling back from earlier highs even as beef overall stays historically expensive. But NY strip steak jumped 15.8% to $14.59/lb, within a dollar of its window-high of $15.50 set back in September 2025. That’s the kind of cut-by-cut divergence that makes “beef prices” a misleading headline all by itself; check our ribeye and NY strip guides before you plan a steak night around either.

The biggest percentage mover in the whole sheet is pork butt/shoulder, up 28.5% to $3.52/lb – a sharp jump for a cut that’s usually the budget play for pulled pork. Pork tenderloin (+11.8% to $4.54/lb) and chicken thighs (+10.3% to $2.36/lb) also posted solid gains, while double-smoked ham hit a new window-high at $5.50/lb, up 15.8% on the month.

Leg of lamb is the standout of the whole report: up 16.8% on the month to $10.99/lb, a new window-high in our 14-month data and up a striking 42.9% year over year. If you were planning a lamb roast for a spring gathering, this was not the month to catch it cheap.

On the downside, chicken wings fell 15.3% to $2.98/lb, spare ribs dropped 13% to $3.20/lb, and prime rib eased 11.6% to $12.55/lb. Brisket also softened, down 9.4% to $8.13/lb – still up 14.5% year over year, but a welcome breather for anyone planning a summer smoke.

Where the deals are

Regional spreads stayed wide this month. Pork butt ran cheapest in the midwest at $2.53/lb versus $4.50/lb in the northwest – nearly double for the same cut. Brisket showed similar range, from $5.66/lb in the midwest to $10.99/lb in Hawaii, and prime rib swung from $8.99/lb in the south central region to $16.74/lb in Hawaii. If you’re flexible on where you shop or which regional chain you use, the midwest and south central regions were the friendliest to a meat budget this month, while Hawaii and the northwest carried the premiums across nearly every cut we track.

Wholesale watch

The boxed beef cutout (wholesale, per-pound equivalent) held close to flat, up 1.3% on the month to $3.90 but up a sharper 12.4% year over year. That modest month-over-month move, against a backdrop of a historically tight cattle herd, suggests wholesale beef isn’t spiking further right now – but it’s also not giving retail much relief, which lines up with the mixed picture we’re seeing case by case: some beef cuts falling from recent highs, others still climbing.

The forces under the market

Beef is the month’s throughline. Reporting points to the smallest U.S. cattle herd in roughly 75 years, with drought cited as a key driver of that contraction, plus strong demand keeping upstream costs elevated.^†1 That combination helps explain why ribeye, NY strip, and other beef cuts keep swinging hard even as the wholesale cutout only inches higher – the tightness is structural, not a one-month blip.

Lamb’s surge has its own story: industry reporting describes a structural domestic supply shortage and heavy reliance on imports, with April 2026 negotiated live slaughter lamb prices up 53% year over year according to a Michigan State market note.^†5 A May retail-meat report said lamb was rising even as other meat markets softened, driven by demand outstripping supply rather than a single shock.^†7 Meanwhile chicken’s softness tracks with reporting that production and supplies were building through May, which one report tied to a 45% year-over-year drop in chicken breast pricing and retailers leaning on poultry as a value ad feature while beef stayed expensive.^†2

Dispatches

A lockout hits a beef plant

Cargill locked out more than 1,700 workers at its Fort Morgan, Colorado beef plant on May 20 after 85% of Teamsters Local 455 members rejected a five-year contract offer, and the facility had reportedly been running around 4,000 head a day against a 4,700-head full-capacity rate.^†1 That’s exactly the kind of plant-level friction that keeps boxed beef supply tight just as the cattle herd itself is historically small.

Washington leans on beef imports and antitrust

The Justice Department confirmed on May 4 that it has an ongoing antitrust investigation into beef processors, having reviewed more than 3 million documents, while a settlement with data firm Agri Stats was reportedly in the works.^†3 Separately, Reuters reported the administration was weighing executive action to boost beef imports and help rebuild the herd, though those orders were delayed and still being “fine-tuned.”^†3

Shoppers trade down at the meat case

Axios reported that Tyson said beef sales volume fell 13% in the period while chicken sales rose 1.7%, as shoppers hunted cheaper proteins, and that Hormel’s Jennie-O ground turkey brand posted another quarter of double-digit dollar-sales growth.^†9 Reporting also described shoppers mixing ground beef with cheaper fillers and comparing store sales calendars day by day to chase deals.^†9

Last month’s call

Our April issue called pork belly and pork loin as the ones to watch after both fell – we expected either a continued slide or a clearer pork-as-beef-substitute signal. Neither happened cleanly: both cuts rose this month instead, pork loin up 5.9% and pork belly up 5%. We also flagged chicken thighs’ new window-low as fragile, and that call held up – thighs bounced 10.3% to $2.36/lb, right in line with what we’d expect from a fresh low. The bigger miss was not seeing lamb’s run coming; nothing in April’s data hinted at a 16.8% monthly jump to a new window-high.

The playbook

For families: build the month’s menu around what’s actually cheap right now, not what’s usually cheap. Chicken wings at $2.98/lb and spare ribs at $3.20/lb both fell double digits this month, and pork loin at $2.33/lb remains one of the lowest per-pound prices on the whole sheet. Skip leg of lamb entirely unless it’s a must-have for a specific occasion – at $10.99/lb it’s the most expensive it’s been in our window.

For caterers and anyone smoking in volume: pork butt at $3.52/lb is still your best per-pound value for a crowd even after its 28.5% jump, and it pairs well with the midwest region’s $2.53/lb reading if your supplier sources from there. If a client wants steak on the menu, price ribeye ($13.51/lb, down sharply) ahead of NY strip ($14.59/lb, up sharply) – the same cattle-market tightness is pushing them in opposite directions this month, and ribeye is currently the better bet.

Watching next month

Our prior outlook flagged pork belly and pork loin as ones to watch for a sustained pullback – instead both turned higher, with pork loin up 5.9% to $2.33/lb and pork belly up 5% to $4.82/lb, so the pork-as-beef-substitute story didn’t show up as softer pork prices this time; it showed up as pork rising too. We also flagged chicken thighs’ new window-low of $2.14/lb as worth tracking – it didn’t hold, bouncing 10.3% to $2.36/lb. Heading into summer grilling season, watch whether NY strip’s jump proves durable against a beef cutout that’s barely moving, and whether lamb’s window-high holds or eases as the current supply crunch reporting suggests it might not.

Sources

1. www.producer.com/livestock/the-western-producer-livestock-report-june-4-2026/
2. www.producer.com/livestock/the-western-producer-livestock-report-may-21-2026/
3. www.producer.com/markets/the-western-producer-livestock-report-may-7-2026/
4. episode3.net/livestock/global-lamb-pricing-update-may-2026/
5. www.canr.msu.edu/news/lamb-prices-start-off-strong-in-2026
6. www.indexbox.io/blog/usda-pork-report-formula-sales-volume-and-pricing-for-week-ending-may-15-2026/
7. www.foodmanufacture.co.uk/Article/2026/05/05/beef-and-lamb-driving-meat-inflation/
8. wolfstreet.com/2026/05/18/food-inflation-in-america-by-product-it-boils-down-to-a-sharp-re-acceleration-on-top-of-already-very-high-prices/
9. www.hipancho.com/community/data-story-may-2026
10. kfgo.com/2026/05/19/farm-bureaus-market-intel-report-examines-meat-prices-demand-ahead-of-grilling-season/
11. chefzone.com/market-update/may-2026-market-update/
12. www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/livestock/why-600-trade-lambs-in-the-us-are-good-for-australian-producers/news-story/1e74ccf9939a42cf05319086af0c88b3
13. www.wylr.net/2026/04/24/2025-in-review-american-lamb-board-publishes-latest-data-on-the-state-of-the-lamb-industry/
14. www.indexbox.io/blog/usda-national-weekly-boxed-beef-cuts-report-lmxb451-may-4-2026/